2011年11月2日星期三
VIDEO: Youth unemployment rise in Eurozone
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4 October 2011 Last updated at 21:07 GMT Help
VIDEO: Germany passes eurozone vote test
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29 September 2011 Last updated at 13:55 GMT Help
2011年11月1日星期二
PM warns over eurozone break-up
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2 October 2011 Last updated at 12:27 GMT
David Cameron warns that the UK cannot shield itself from the crisis in the eurozone Prime Minister David Cameron has warned that it would be "very bad" for the UK if the eurozone was to break up.Speaking to the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, he said the debt crisis in the eurozone was "a threat not just to itself, but also a threat to the UK economy, and a threat to the world economy".
He reiterated that eurozone leaders had to take quick and decisive action.
Mr Cameron said that, as 40% of UK exports went to the eurozone, it could not shield itself from the problem.
The prime minister said the UK government had "a very clear view" of what needed to be done, and that it was pushing this with its partners in Europe and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
He said eurozone leaders had to strengthen the region's financial mechanisms, ensure the greater involvement of the IMF, and deal decisively with the high levels of sovereign debt.
Mr Cameron added: "Action needs to be taken in the next coming weeks to strengthen Europe's banks, to build the defences that the eurozone has, to deal with the problems of debts decisively."
He said these emergency measures were needed before any long-term plans of more economic coordination across the eurozone were introduced, such as a single tax system.
Greek fearsEuropean stock markets again fell heavily on Friday due to concerns about the debt crisis in the eurozone.
Continue reading the main story Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.It meant that for the three months from July to September, the main UK share index, the FTSE 100, recorded its biggest quarterly fall since 2002.The concerns centre on Greece, the most indebted eurozone nation.
Greece needs its next 8bn euros (£6.9bn; $10.9bn) instalment of European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout loans by the middle of this month to be able to continue paying its civil servants and teachers.
This tranche was delayed in September after EU, IMF and European Central Bank officials said the Greek government was not carrying out sufficient austerity measures.
The wider fear is that Greece will ultimately default on its debt payments, and of the knock-on effect this would have on banks across Europe which own Greek government bonds.
Some commentators also warn that Greece may ultimately have to leave the eurozone, plunging the region's economic and political systems into chaos.
Eurozone leaders and the IMF are now continuing to work on a solution to the debt crisis, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel due to speak again this week.
2011年10月28日星期五
VIDEO: Eurozone crisis sparks fears for Dexia
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4 October 2011 Last updated at 22:15 GMT Help
2011年10月23日星期日
Eurozone manufacturing contracts
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3 October 2011 Last updated at 09:11 GMT
Markit says the German economy, the eurozone's main engine of growth, is stalling Manufacturing in the eurozone shrank at its fastest pace in two years in September, a business survey has shown.Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) of activity dropped to 48.5 last month, from 49 in August. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
That is the second consecutive month that eurozone manufacturing has shrunk.
Greece, the focal point of the eurozone's debt crisis, saw its output contract for the 25th consecutive month.
"Manufacturers are reporting the worst business conditions for over two years, facing a combination of lacklustre domestic demand and falling export sales," said Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist.
The region has been weighed down as leaders struggle to prove that heavily indebted countries, led by Greece, will be able to avoid defaulting on their debts.
This has led to bailouts for Greece, the Irish Republic and Portugal - but the crisis has continued and has weighed on bonds and stocks globally.
Even in Germany, the engine of European economic growth, Markit's survey showed factory activity has come to a standstill.
Sharp rise in eurozone inflation
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30 September 2011 Last updated at 11:18 GMT Continue reading the main story Last Updated at 03:49 GMTMarket indexCurrent valueTrendVariation% variationThe eurozone inflation rate increased to 3% in September, up from 2.5% in August, according to the first estimate from the EU statistics agency.
No breakdown was given, but Eurostat said its initial forecasts were usually "reliable".
Separate figures also released by Eurostat showed the eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 10% in August from the previous month.
The number of people unemployed fell by 38,000 compared with July.
The unemployment rate in Spain, the highest in Europe, rose slightly to 21.2%, with youth unemployment hitting 46.2%.
However, the jobless rate for those under 25 in the eurozone as a whole fell slightly, to 20.4%.
Falling sharesAnalysts, who had expected a small rise in inflation, pointed to technical changes in the way price rises are calculated as a contributory factor in the sharp increase.
Continue reading the main story
Andrew Walker Economics correspondent, BBC World Service This rise in the inflation rate makes the situation even more complicated for the European Central Bank.
The ECB has been widely criticised for raising interest rates earlier this year, as several eurozone countries are struggling with government debt crises and economic growth that is either weak or completely stalled.
The ECB has an inflation target of close to but below 2%. So the increased rate of price rises will make the Bank even more cautious about making interest rate cuts.
In addition, some of the ideas being discussed for responding to the eurozone crisis involve a wider role for the European Central Bank which could be characterised as, in effect, "printing money". As this could be inflationary, the latest data on price rises underlines the potential risk of such a move.
"It's not a nice number, but I wouldn't panic that the high inflation which some have warned about for years is finally here," said Martin Van Vliet at ING."We will see inflation declining over the next months, staying above 2.5% but next year, with stable oil and food prices, we will fall to lower levels."
The European Central Bank target for inflation is 2%, and the bank raised interest rates in July from 1.25% to 1.5% in order to combat rising prices.
However, the continuing debt crisis makes further rate rises in the coming months unlikely, analysts say.
With confidence in the outlook for economic growth in the eurozone fragile, policymakers are unlikely to risk raising rates, they say.
Equally, however, sharply rising prices make a cut in interest rates less likely.
This put further downward pressure on markets that fell sharply in early trading.
Germany's Dax index was down 2.5%, with France's Cac 40 and the UK's FTSE 100 sliding about 1.5%.
2011年10月20日星期四
AUDIO: Germany 'committed to eurozone'
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Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will today ask her country's politicians to sign off a plan to give more money to Europe's bail out fund.
Peter Altmaier, leader of the parliamentary group for the Christian Democrats, predicts the result and the long term consequences for Angela Merkel.
And Europe editor Gavin Hewitt previews a test of her power and authority.
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2011年10月16日星期日
UK needs eurozone safeguards - PM
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4 October 2011 Last updated at 09:04 GMT
Mr Cameron says he is a "practical Eurosceptic" David Cameron has said UK interests must be protected should eurozone countries seek closer integration as a result of the debt crisis in Europe.The prime minister told the BBC it was "logical" that countries using the single currency would move closer to a single economic policy.
But he said the UK and nine other EU states which are not in the eurozone would need "certain safeguards".
The BBC understands UK officials are preparing for such an eventuality.
The BBC's political editor Nick Robinson said the Treasury and Foreign Office were already discussing how to protect British interests, in areas such as the City of London and the single market, should there be a fundamental change in the shape of the EU.
As the eurozone economic crisis shows no sign of abating, some of its 17 members have been talking about greater fiscal union to bolster the single currency in future and support weaker members.
At the same time, Mr Cameron is facing calls from many of his MPs for a fundamental change to the UK's relationship with Europe. Some want the UK to claw back powers from the EU while others are seeking a referendum on the UK's membership.
'Not naive'The prime minister, who calls himself a "practical eurosceptic", has said the UK must work within the current EU framework to get the best deal for Britain and that any talk of repatriating powers must wait to a later date.
He told the BBC he believed closer co-operation between eurozone members was "necessary" to prevent a repeat of the current crisis and denied he had changed his view, since before the debt crisis began in 2009.
Continue reading the main storyThis is not some naive view that they go off on their way and we are intensely relaxed about it”End Quote David Cameron on the eurozone "I have always argued that the logic of a single currency is more of a single economic policy," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"It is one of the reasons I never wanted to join it.
"As eurozone countries move to co-ordinate more, as I believe they should, those outside the eurozone will need certain safeguards to make sure that what the eurozone countries are agreeing separately does not affect the single market."
He added: "This is not some naive view that they go off on their way and we are intensely relaxed about it. There are safeguards we need and the Liberal Democrats completely agree with that."
Deputy PM Nick Clegg, whose Liberal Democrats are the most pro-European of the three biggest UK parties, has said the eurozone crisis should not be used as a justification to radically alter the UK's relationship with the European Union.
But, with 40% of UK trade going to Europe, Mr Clegg has said the single market - which is supposed to guarantee free movement of goods across Europe - must work more effectively and British firms must be able to compete on a level-playing field.
The deputy prime minister has warned that allowing eurozone states to act against the interests of other EU members would create a "divisive and weaker" Europe.
'Held back'As EU finance ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss the crisis, Mr Cameron said it was in the UK's interest that the "fire" in the eurozone was put out as quickly as possible.
"The eurozone crisis is holding back the whole world economy, Britain included," he said. "Clearly the Greek situation needs to be resolved one way or another and extremely quickly."
The future of Europe is not on the official conference agenda and one of Mr Cameron's closest allies has warned party members against obsessing about the issue during the event.
But Nick Robinson said it was the dominant issue for many MPs and party members while the PM's advisers believed the EU could be set for a once-in-a-generation transformation due to the current crisis.
This begged the question whether the UK should seeker a closer or more distant relationship with the EU or leave altogether - a possibility rejected by the government.
2011年10月14日星期五
Experts debate eurozone options
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2 October 2011 Last updated at 00:06 GMT A number of ideas are reportedly being discussed to tackle the eurozone debt crisis.
These include a 50% write-down of Greece's government debts, strengthening big European banks that could be hit by any defaults by highly indebted governments, and boosting the size of the eurozone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).
Here, eight economists discuss what they think will happen and what they think needs to happen in the eurozone.
Senior managing director of economics at FTI Consulting and former UK government adviser
Last week's events, with all the market volatility, were a serious wake-up call to all international institutions and to policymakers. I think they've understood it and institutions will be set up in such a way to ensure future crises should be averted.
I think we will see a haircut on Greek bonds, a recapitalisation programme for banks and an increase in the size of the bailout fund - but you need all these things, they need to be part of a package.
Even with that, in a year's time Europe will still be pretty weak because the long-term problems will still be there - low growth and unsustainable debt.
What we have seen for Greece will have to happen elsewhere. Haircuts are inevitable for other countries too.
They have to rethink how you achieve faster growth in Europe. If you don't get back to growth then the debt problems will remain.
The next thing that needs to be looked at seriously is issuing eurobonds. That may well be what we need in the longer term to lead us back to growth.
Director, Centre for European Policy Studies
We believe a market-based approach is needed to reduce Greece's debt.
The EFSF should offer holders of Greek debt an exchange into EFSF paper at the current market price. Banks would be forced in the context of the ongoing stress tests to write down holdings in their banking book and thus have an incentive to accept the offer.
More widely, we argue that the EFSF needs to be restructured.
You cannot just increase its size because if Italy or Spain were to step out as a guarantor, that would leave France, for instance, with a share of 40%, which it could not sustain and would lose its triple-A credit rating.
It cannot work as intended, but if it were re-registered as a bank, which would give it access to potentially unlimited ECB refinancing in case of emergency, the general breakdown in confidence could be stopped while leaving the management of public debt under the supervision of finance ministers.
Professorial research fellow, the European Institute of the London School of Economics. Currently researching EU economic policy, governance and policy co-ordination under European Monetary Union
The one obvious thing leaders should do would be to decide rapidly on a way of moving towards genuine eurobonds.
The Germans, manifestly, are very hostile to the idea, but it is a development that seems to have so many advantages that it ought to be pursued.
The trick will be to find a formula that deals with the "moral hazard" objections by introducing well-judged conditionality.
Economist at Open Europe, an independent think tank campaigning for reform of the EU
Greece obviously needs to restructure. It's looking at write-downs of 50% - that's a necessary step. It finally looks like the eurozone leaders are coming round to that.
But if it's not combined with recapitalising banks and other economic reforms it won't work.
In terms of the write-downs, banks will be able to absorb the hit because they should have been preparing for it for the last year. I think it would be necessary to use the EFSF to help recapitalise these banks and provide a backstop.
At the moment there's no clear pan-European mechanism for dealing with winding down a cross-border bank. I think we need a policy for what happens in this situation, a huge policy that needs to be detailed.
They also have to look at the different needs of the eurozone - for instance, interest rates in Germany would be very different to those in Greece. Those imbalances aren't going to go away.
Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank
What I think the Europeans will choose to do is leverage the capital of the EFSF (currently 440bn euros) up by borrowing 5-10 times that from the market. They would then have the capacity to go and buy all of the sickly sovereign bonds that the banks are sitting on and swap them for bonds they themselves will issue.
I don't think it would be successful. In the short run it would probably be a bit of a tonic for bank stock prices and equity markets, but it doesn't do anything to solve the problem of the euro crisis at all.
I think you need a combination of three things.
These are: a restructuring template for Greece's debt with long gross periods - three years for the interest payment and 5-10 years for the principal repayment. That template might then have to be used for other countries.
Then, to stop Greek banks collapsing, you have to support the Greek banking system. And to stop banking contagion spreading to the likes of Italy and Spain, you need a banking recapitalisation programme.
And if the ECB said they were prepared to stand by and buy any amount of Spanish and Italian bonds, then we'd raise three cheers.
Anything that stops short of cleansing the European banking system will not be enough.
Chairman and chief economist, Lombard Street Research
The problem is that the Club Med countries - Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal - are not competitive. Even if they agree to writing down Greek debts and increasing the EFSF, that will only be successful in postponing the issue for a few more months. It won't stop debt going up.
For the euro to survive the only solution is for the Club Med countries to leave the single currency. I think Ireland could stay in the euro as, although it's banking system is a mess, it is cost competitive - exports make up most of its GDP - so it is possible to turn the economy round quite fast.
Former economist at Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, now chief economist at Berenberg Bank
The probability that we will get a significant write-down of Greek debt as part of an orderly programme, with an immediate recapitalisation of Greek banks, and with further European support for Greece, has risen substantially.
The key question in all this is nothing to do with Greece - but whether upon granting Greece debt relief we can protect Italy from the market panic and prevent contagion.
The risk Greece will default is now above 50%. But Greece is highly likely to stay in the euro come what may.
I would like to see the ECB commit to being the ultimate backstop - if things get really ugly the ECB should buy more government bonds.
Professor of economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, specialises in monetary integration, monetary policy and financial crisis
Discussions about the EFSF are irrelevant. It shows policymakers haven't zeroed in on the crisis and what to do about it. The EFSF currently has 440bn euros. The amount we're talking about for Italy and Spain, as well as Greece, Portugal and Ireland could be 3.5 trillion euros.
I think that Greece will inevitably default, and I believe that Italy too will have to default, but I don't see a willingness in policymakers to accept that.
The ECB is the only institution that can stop the crisis. My solution is for the ECB to issue a partial guarantee on the existing public debts of eurozone governments, of say, up to 60% of GDP. It would allow governments to default but would create a backstop.